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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.82+5.63vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.40+2.53vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.69+8.10vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.85vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+3.82vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.49+1.59vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+5.66vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35+0.01vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.77-2.55vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-1.50vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.32-2.63vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60-0.59vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania2.05-3.79vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.37-2.23vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.53-0.20vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College1.09-2.83vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.31-4.58vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.43-10.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.63Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.53Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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11.1Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.82St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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7.59Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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8.01College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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6.45Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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8.37Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.41Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.21University of Pennsylvania2.050.1%1st Place
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11.77University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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14.8University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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13.17SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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12.42North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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7.72Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 10.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.8% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Reid | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maks Groom | 7.2% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 5.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 36.4% |
| John Vail | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 17.8% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.5% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.