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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.69+10.04vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.49+5.82vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32+5.50vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.40+0.43vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.77+1.47vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.86vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.82-0.67vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35+0.03vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.10vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-1.91vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.09+2.13vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.53+3.05vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.37-1.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.19-1.56vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.05-5.71vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.32-7.73vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-5.60vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.31-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.04Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.82Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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8.5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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4.43Brown University3.400.2%1st Place
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6.47Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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6.33Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.03College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.09Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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13.13SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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15.05University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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11.89University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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12.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.27Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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11.4Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.07North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payne Donaldson | 3.3% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Maks Groom | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 18.9% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| William Michels | 9.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| John Vail | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 16.7% |
| Brody Schwartz | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 40.3% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.3% |
| Jasper Reid | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 4.8% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.