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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.77+5.75vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+6.52vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.35+5.41vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+3.81vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.40-0.47vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+1.98vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.72-0.26vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+4.57vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.36vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.53+4.91vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.32-2.64vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60-0.53vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University1.31-0.92vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.47-6.60vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-6.11vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.76-1.82vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.37-4.85vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.69-7.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.52Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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8.41College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.81Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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4.53Brown University3.400.2%1st Place
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7.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.74Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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7.64Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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14.91University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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8.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.320.1%1st Place
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11.47Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.08North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
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7.4University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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8.89St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.0%1st Place
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14.18SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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12.15University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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10.62Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 20.3% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Reid | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 10.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Brody Schwartz | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 36.1% |
| Maks Groom | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 6.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Madison Bashaw | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 23.4% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 7.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.