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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+3.68vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.72+4.98vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.23vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.77+2.50vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+5.77vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+1.82vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+5.76vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43-0.17vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.09+4.12vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-0.74vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.32-2.48vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.53+3.09vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.37-1.03vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.10vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston2.35-6.82vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.47-8.25vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-5.56vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University1.31-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Brown University3.400.2%1st Place
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6.98Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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8.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.5Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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10.77Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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7.82Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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12.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.0%1st Place
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7.83Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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13.12SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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9.26St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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8.52Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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15.09University of Michigan0.530.0%1st Place
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11.97University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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7.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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8.18College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.75University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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11.44Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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12.18North Carolina State University1.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 16.6% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 4.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jasper Reid | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 11.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| John Vail | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 14.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Brody Schwartz | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 40.3% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 5.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.