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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University0.12+3.21vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.23+0.34vs Predicted
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4University of Chicago0.40-0.37vs Predicted
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5Purdue University-0.50+0.48vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin-0.26-1.01vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.23-2.04vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan-1.57-0.35vs Predicted
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9University of Saint Thomas-1.95-0.55vs Predicted
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10Northern Michigan University-2.47-0.57vs Predicted
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11Marquette University-0.79-4.87vs Predicted
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12Lake Forest College-2.60-2.25vs Predicted
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13Northern Michigan University-3.53-2.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.21Northwestern University0.120.1%1st Place
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2.34Northwestern University1.230.4%1st Place
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3.63University of Chicago0.400.2%1st Place
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5.48Purdue University-0.500.1%1st Place
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4.99University of Wisconsin-0.260.1%1st Place
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4.96University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.230.1%1st Place
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7.65University of Michigan-1.570.0%1st Place
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8.45University of Saint Thomas-1.950.0%1st Place
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9.43Northern Michigan University-2.470.0%1st Place
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6.13Marquette University-0.790.0%1st Place
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9.75Lake Forest College-2.600.0%1st Place
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10.98Northern Michigan University-3.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Bray | 13.2% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 36.2% | 28.5% | 16.2% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Zhalilo | 16.7% | 17.0% | 18.7% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nok In Chan | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nigel Yu | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tiernan O'Kane | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colby Peplinski | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 18.8% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
| Conall Lynch | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 20.3% | 15.0% | 6.4% |
| Nathan Sylvester | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 23.5% | 25.0% | 12.7% |
| Eli Erling | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Juan Moya | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 13.0% | 18.7% | 28.9% | 19.4% |
| Andrew Tallmadge | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 21.2% | 57.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.