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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+1.26vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.09+0.88vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-1.53+2.32vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy-1.86+1.71vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-1.52+0.12vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-0.83vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-2.97+0.46vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands-3.61+0.10vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-7.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.26California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.4%1st Place
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2.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.090.2%1st Place
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5.32Arizona State University-1.530.1%1st Place
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5.71California Poly Maritime Academy-1.860.0%1st Place
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5.12University of California at Irvine-1.520.0%1st Place
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5.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Berkeley-2.970.0%1st Place
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8.1California State University Channel Islands-3.610.0%1st Place
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2.97California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 36.3% | 28.6% | 17.9% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Phibbs | 21.2% | 24.6% | 23.4% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kenealy | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 18.4% | 19.1% | 17.3% | 11.8% | 1.9% |
| Blake Doscher | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 20.5% | 21.1% | 15.3% | 3.6% |
| Emma Feasey | 4.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 18.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.2% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 20.5% | 17.8% | 8.4% | 1.6% |
| Bodhi Silberling | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 34.6% | 30.1% |
| Chase Shockley | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 20.5% | 59.7% |
| Sam Jennings | 22.5% | 20.2% | 22.0% | 17.6% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.