Race 11A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Vanessa Lahrkamp 27.6% 21.2% 16.7% 9.6% 10.6% 5.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Cordelia Burn 11.3% 11.1% 12.9% 10.4% 10.5% 10.8% 9.9% 8.1% 5.7% 4.2% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Carmen Cowles 13.4% 15.7% 12.9% 13.5% 10.9% 9.0% 7.9% 6.7% 5.3% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0%
Brooke Schmelz 6.0% 8.4% 9.4% 8.3% 9.8% 10.2% 11.1% 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 6.1% 3.2% 2.2% 0.3%
Heidi Hicks 1.8% 1.3% 2.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 5.3% 5.4% 7.5% 7.6% 10.4% 13.9% 18.4% 16.0%
Eva Ermlich 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 8.6% 11.0% 9.9% 8.8% 10.0% 7.4% 9.2% 6.7% 5.8% 2.7% 0.6%
Vivian Bonsager 3.1% 2.4% 3.9% 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 5.8% 6.8% 7.9% 10.1% 13.0% 12.9% 11.2% 7.5%
Kytalin Hendrickson 5.6% 7.9% 6.0% 8.4% 6.9% 8.3% 9.1% 8.4% 10.7% 8.9% 7.5% 6.0% 5.1% 1.2%
Mia Hanes 5.4% 5.0% 5.3% 6.5% 6.0% 9.8% 9.5% 10.5% 9.9% 10.1% 7.9% 8.2% 3.9% 2.0%
Katherine McGagh 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 3.2% 5.8% 5.4% 6.6% 9.9% 10.5% 15.0% 16.1% 17.6%
bella casaretto 9.9% 9.5% 11.5% 11.4% 10.2% 11.0% 8.0% 9.1% 7.0% 5.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Maisie MacGillivray 1.6% 1.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 6.3% 7.7% 9.4% 12.9% 13.3% 15.2% 14.3%
Lauren Ehnot 5.1% 6.2% 6.2% 7.6% 7.9% 9.0% 9.4% 10.1% 9.4% 8.8% 8.0% 7.2% 3.7% 1.4%
Elizabeth Amelotte 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.5% 4.9% 6.3% 7.3% 9.7% 19.7% 39.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.