Race 12A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Carmen Cowles 14.3% 14.7% 14.8% 11.5% 10.7% 9.8% 7.9% 5.5% 4.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Katherine McGagh 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 3.3% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6% 6.3% 7.4% 11.3% 14.4% 17.3% 15.7%
Mia Hanes 5.1% 6.1% 6.6% 7.2% 6.6% 8.1% 6.5% 10.1% 9.3% 10.6% 10.5% 7.7% 4.2% 1.4%
bella casaretto 9.8% 10.1% 10.6% 12.2% 11.1% 10.1% 8.6% 7.5% 7.6% 5.9% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Cordelia Burn 9.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.8% 10.0% 9.6% 9.7% 8.2% 7.0% 5.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.4%
Brooke Schmelz 7.0% 7.8% 8.7% 7.3% 11.0% 9.0% 10.9% 7.8% 8.6% 8.1% 7.2% 3.8% 2.4% 0.4%
Maisie MacGillivray 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 4.1% 5.1% 4.9% 6.4% 7.1% 8.2% 10.6% 14.8% 15.3% 12.9%
Elizabeth Amelotte 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 2.4% 3.5% 4.3% 4.0% 6.6% 9.8% 16.7% 43.2%
Kytalin Hendrickson 6.5% 4.6% 6.8% 7.1% 6.8% 9.2% 8.8% 12.1% 8.9% 10.4% 7.6% 6.3% 3.9% 1.0%
Lauren Ehnot 5.8% 5.2% 5.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.4% 8.8% 8.8% 10.3% 9.6% 9.3% 7.5% 3.4% 1.6%
Vanessa Lahrkamp 26.3% 21.2% 15.3% 12.1% 9.3% 6.7% 4.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Eva Ermlich 6.0% 7.6% 8.0% 8.0% 8.7% 11.2% 10.2% 9.0% 7.8% 9.1% 5.7% 4.6% 3.1% 1.0%
Vivian Bonsager 2.6% 3.6% 2.6% 4.5% 4.8% 3.8% 5.7% 7.6% 9.7% 9.5% 11.6% 12.6% 13.2% 8.2%
Heidi Hicks 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 3.8% 2.8% 5.9% 5.9% 7.0% 8.5% 10.9% 13.0% 18.9% 14.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.