Race 5B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Mia Nicolosi 23.5% 19.3% 13.8% 11.7% 8.2% 7.7% 5.4% 3.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Sarah Burn 9.1% 11.5% 10.3% 9.0% 8.9% 9.5% 10.0% 7.2% 6.6% 4.8% 5.8% 2.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Kay Brunsvold 6.8% 5.4% 6.7% 7.2% 7.1% 7.6% 9.0% 7.0% 8.7% 8.0% 7.9% 8.0% 5.0% 3.8% 1.8%
Brooke Barry 2.9% 4.1% 4.7% 3.5% 5.9% 6.2% 5.9% 6.8% 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 9.6% 10.9% 9.1% 8.4%
Sophie Fisher 12.5% 12.8% 9.7% 10.7% 10.2% 10.3% 7.9% 8.2% 5.1% 4.3% 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0%
J.J. Smith 6.0% 5.9% 7.8% 7.2% 7.2% 6.6% 9.2% 8.4% 8.1% 9.9% 8.4% 5.4% 4.9% 3.7% 1.3%
Gray Hemans 10.1% 9.4% 9.6% 10.7% 10.1% 8.7% 8.7% 7.2% 6.6% 7.1% 3.5% 4.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Katherine McNamara 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 9.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.0% 8.9% 7.3% 7.9% 8.2% 5.8% 4.5% 3.0% 1.2%
Mercy Tangredi 2.3% 2.7% 3.5% 3.9% 3.9% 4.8% 5.1% 6.4% 6.9% 8.5% 9.4% 9.3% 10.8% 13.4% 9.1%
Lucy Meagher 7.3% 6.4% 8.6% 7.4% 9.0% 9.1% 7.6% 9.0% 8.4% 7.3% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 2.7% 1.3%
Oakley Cunningham 3.2% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% 5.8% 5.2% 5.9% 6.6% 7.8% 7.0% 7.9% 9.6% 9.2% 9.7% 8.4%
Lucia Loosbrock 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 5.5% 6.8% 5.9% 5.1% 7.1% 9.1% 7.5% 9.3% 9.2% 8.8% 9.7% 5.0%
Leah Rickard 2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 4.2% 3.9% 5.7% 6.0% 6.4% 8.7% 8.8% 13.4% 11.9% 15.3%
Meredith Broadus 2.2% 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 4.5% 4.1% 5.0% 5.4% 5.5% 7.1% 6.7% 10.1% 11.0% 15.1% 14.4%
Ella Towner 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 2.7% 3.3% 2.5% 4.8% 4.5% 6.4% 8.7% 9.3% 14.4% 33.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.