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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.33+4.94vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+1.67vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.93+4.26vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.01+3.04vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.86+2.67vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.06+0.93vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.00+3.40vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34+1.36vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.53+2.84vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.58-4.72vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.08-0.76vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.30-5.62vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.39-3.60vs Predicted
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14University of Hawaii1.15-4.10vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.52-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.94Dartmouth College2.330.1%1st Place
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3.67Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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7.26Cornell University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.04Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.67University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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6.93Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.4Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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9.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.0%1st Place
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11.84University of Vermont0.530.0%1st Place
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5.28Stanford University2.580.1%1st Place
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10.24University of Rhode Island1.080.0%1st Place
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6.38Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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9.4Tulane University1.390.0%1st Place
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9.9University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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8.68Northeastern University1.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray Hemans | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 23.2% | 19.1% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| Katherine McNamara | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Brooke Barry | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% |
| Ella Towner | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 16.6% | 30.2% |
| Sophie Fisher | 11.9% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Leah Rickard | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 14.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Oakley Cunningham | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 10.6% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.