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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.35vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.81+0.78vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.08+1.07vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.10-0.02vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.83-0.37vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.05+0.13vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.53-1.80vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.3%1st Place
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3.35University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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3.78Cornell University1.810.2%1st Place
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5.07Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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4.98SUNY Maritime College1.100.1%1st Place
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5.63University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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7.13University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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6.2University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 34.5% | 25.1% | 17.7% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 17.8% | 22.1% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 15.5% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Asher Green | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 10.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 21.7% | 36.4% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| Max Case | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 16.0% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.