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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.35vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.10+2.18vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.81-0.33vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.08+0.02vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.83-0.40vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.05+0.11vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.53-1.79vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.4%1st Place
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3.35University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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5.18SUNY Maritime College1.100.1%1st Place
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3.67Cornell University1.810.2%1st Place
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5.02Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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7.11University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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6.21University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 35.2% | 24.5% | 17.5% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 17.4% | 23.5% | 17.5% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 6.5% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 10.3% | 6.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 16.0% | 16.0% | 18.6% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Asher Green | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 15.4% | 17.7% | 13.2% | 10.0% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 20.5% | 37.1% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
| Max Case | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 20.4% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.