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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.44vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.83+3.83vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.08+2.20vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.13-0.85vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin0.53+1.04vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.10-0.95vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.05+0.07vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.81-4.21vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.3%1st Place
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5.83University of Vermont0.830.0%1st Place
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5.2Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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3.15University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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6.04University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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5.05SUNY Maritime College1.100.1%1st Place
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7.07University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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3.79Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 34.9% | 25.5% | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 12.1% |
| Asher Green | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 6.5% |
| Cole Woodworth | 21.0% | 21.2% | 20.1% | 16.0% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 5.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 19.6% | 36.1% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.9% | 17.4% | 17.0% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Max Case | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 21.3% | 20.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.