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📊 Prediction Accuracy
88.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.43vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.08+3.33vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.81+0.78vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.83+1.52vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.13-1.84vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.10-0.96vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin0.53-0.75vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-1.57vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.05-1.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.3%1st Place
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5.33Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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3.78Cornell University1.810.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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3.16University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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5.04SUNY Maritime College1.100.1%1st Place
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6.25University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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6.43Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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7.05University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 33.6% | 26.2% | 19.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 5.0% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 14.2% | 17.3% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 9.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 22.6% | 23.8% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 7.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 17.4% | 19.1% | 16.8% |
| Max Case | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 16.0% | 18.5% | 22.9% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 20.7% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.