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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+1.44vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.13+1.31vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.10+2.18vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.83+1.55vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.81-1.32vs Predicted
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6Princeton University1.08-0.89vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.05+0.12vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.53-1.79vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.4%1st Place
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3.31University of Pennsylvania2.130.2%1st Place
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5.18SUNY Maritime College1.100.1%1st Place
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5.55University of Vermont0.830.1%1st Place
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3.68Cornell University1.810.2%1st Place
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5.11Princeton University1.080.1%1st Place
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7.12University of Michigan0.050.0%1st Place
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6.21University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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6.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 35.3% | 24.1% | 17.8% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 18.0% | 21.8% | 19.8% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Brooks Turcotte | 6.1% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 6.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 10.6% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 16.7% | 18.8% | 16.3% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Asher Green | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 9.9% | 5.9% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 20.4% | 37.1% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 17.0% | 19.1% | 17.8% |
| Max Case | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 17.0% | 20.2% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.