Race 1A

emma-2023

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Arden Carleton 15.7% 14.9% 14.9% 13.3% 11.5% 10.5% 8.0% 5.4% 3.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 15.6% 18.6% 16.2% 12.4% 11.7% 9.2% 6.9% 4.2% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Seamus Hendrickson 23.2% 19.0% 17.0% 13.3% 9.7% 7.5% 5.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Jack Miller 7.3% 9.5% 7.8% 9.8% 11.4% 11.2% 10.6% 10.1% 8.2% 6.9% 4.5% 2.2% 0.5%
Domenico Sacchetti 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 6.1% 5.7% 9.3% 8.3% 10.1% 10.1% 12.7% 11.8% 8.4% 4.0%
Jennifer Falkner 5.3% 4.4% 4.6% 6.3% 7.6% 8.0% 8.5% 11.8% 11.7% 12.4% 9.0% 7.7% 2.7%
Joseph Mowrey 3.3% 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% 4.7% 6.3% 6.0% 6.8% 10.0% 11.4% 16.5% 16.1% 9.9%
Carly Irwin 1.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.4% 3.7% 4.9% 5.0% 9.2% 11.6% 14.2% 23.9% 14.5%
Juhi Desai 3.7% 3.4% 3.8% 4.8% 5.7% 6.4% 8.4% 9.7% 11.7% 11.5% 13.3% 12.5% 5.1%
Mason Shaw 10.6% 9.9% 11.8% 11.9% 10.7% 10.3% 10.5% 7.5% 7.3% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Iain McSweeney 4.0% 4.5% 7.3% 6.5% 7.0% 8.3% 11.4% 11.8% 10.3% 10.0% 9.0% 7.7% 2.2%
Jenna Kozal 4.6% 5.7% 5.8% 8.2% 9.6% 8.2% 9.1% 12.1% 10.5% 10.2% 9.8% 5.1% 1.1%
Keegan Aerts 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 2.0% 2.1% 3.5% 4.9% 8.0% 14.6% 59.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.