Race 4A

emma-2023

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Seamus Hendrickson 24.5% 18.2% 16.6% 13.2% 11.6% 7.9% 4.2% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Andrew Michels 18.1% 17.0% 16.4% 13.3% 11.0% 9.6% 6.3% 3.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Arden Carleton 14.9% 17.4% 13.3% 13.5% 11.6% 10.4% 8.5% 5.0% 3.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Jack Miller 7.4% 8.9% 8.9% 12.1% 10.5% 10.4% 10.5% 10.7% 9.0% 6.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.6%
Mason Shaw 11.0% 10.3% 13.3% 11.1% 11.2% 10.8% 10.0% 9.6% 6.4% 3.4% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Juhi Desai 3.4% 3.9% 4.5% 4.7% 6.0% 7.2% 9.2% 10.6% 10.8% 13.5% 12.9% 8.9% 4.4%
Domenico Sacchetti 5.5% 4.5% 4.6% 6.6% 7.1% 7.2% 8.8% 11.1% 11.3% 12.0% 11.9% 6.6% 2.8%
Jenna Kozal 5.9% 6.4% 5.7% 7.0% 10.0% 11.2% 10.7% 10.5% 12.2% 7.3% 8.0% 4.3% 0.8%
Keegan Aerts 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 3.2% 3.8% 4.9% 7.6% 17.4% 53.4%
Jack Bergman 2.2% 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.8% 4.2% 7.2% 8.7% 10.2% 13.4% 15.0% 14.7% 10.9%
Iain McSweeney 3.4% 5.4% 7.0% 7.3% 8.5% 8.9% 10.8% 11.8% 10.7% 10.5% 8.9% 4.5% 2.3%
Joseph Mowrey 1.6% 2.6% 3.1% 3.9% 4.5% 5.9% 5.6% 6.8% 9.6% 14.1% 14.6% 17.4% 10.3%
Carly Irwin 1.5% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 4.2% 6.3% 6.7% 9.0% 11.0% 14.2% 24.1% 14.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.