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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia0.70+1.44vs Predicted
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2William and Mary-0.06+1.58vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland-1.14+2.25vs Predicted
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4University of Virginia0.06-0.59vs Predicted
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5Catholic University of America-1.56+0.80vs Predicted
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6American University-0.06-2.39vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.36-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44University of Virginia0.700.3%1st Place
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3.58William and Mary-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.25University of Maryland-1.140.1%1st Place
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3.41University of Virginia0.060.2%1st Place
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5.8Catholic University of America-1.560.0%1st Place
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3.61American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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3.91Virginia Tech-0.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Montague | 34.8% | 25.0% | 17.0% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Sam Dutilly | 12.8% | 18.5% | 20.5% | 15.4% | 16.8% | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Anthony Thonnard | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 25.7% | 31.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 16.5% | 17.3% | 18.6% | 20.0% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 2.7% |
| Benedict Gorman | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 21.7% | 49.1% |
| Karl Wagerson | 14.9% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 13.3% | 4.7% |
| Daniel Hale | 13.0% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 20.6% | 14.7% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.