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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary-0.06+2.53vs Predicted
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2American University-0.06+1.53vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland-1.14+2.23vs Predicted
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4Catholic University of America-1.56+1.83vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia0.06-1.58vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia0.70-3.48vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech-0.36-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53William and Mary-0.060.2%1st Place
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3.53American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.23University of Maryland-1.140.1%1st Place
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5.83Catholic University of America-1.560.0%1st Place
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3.42University of Virginia0.060.2%1st Place
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2.52University of Virginia0.700.3%1st Place
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3.94Virginia Tech-0.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Dutilly | 17.2% | 15.7% | 17.1% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 11.8% | 4.7% |
| Karl Wagerson | 14.5% | 16.9% | 19.7% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 9.7% | 4.2% |
| Anthony Thonnard | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 27.5% | 29.1% |
| Benedict Gorman | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 20.1% | 50.6% |
| Connor Lothrop | 15.9% | 19.4% | 18.1% | 17.8% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 3.7% |
| Andrew Montague | 32.1% | 24.1% | 19.1% | 14.1% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Daniel Hale | 12.1% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 17.9% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.