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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia0.06+2.35vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia0.70+0.43vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech-0.36+1.05vs Predicted
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4University of Maryland-1.14+1.28vs Predicted
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5American University-0.06-1.36vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America-1.56-0.24vs Predicted
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7William and Mary-0.06-3.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35University of Virginia0.060.2%1st Place
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2.43University of Virginia0.700.3%1st Place
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4.05Virginia Tech-0.360.1%1st Place
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5.28University of Maryland-1.140.0%1st Place
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3.64American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.76Catholic University of America-1.560.0%1st Place
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3.49William and Mary-0.060.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Lothrop | 18.8% | 18.7% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 9.9% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Montague | 33.2% | 26.3% | 19.4% | 11.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Hale | 10.6% | 12.0% | 16.2% | 17.3% | 18.9% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Anthony Thonnard | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 27.6% | 30.5% |
| Karl Wagerson | 13.0% | 17.7% | 18.4% | 16.4% | 17.6% | 11.9% | 5.0% |
| Benedict Gorman | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 20.1% | 48.5% |
| Sam Dutilly | 16.9% | 16.7% | 15.2% | 19.8% | 17.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.