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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech-0.36+2.96vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia0.70+0.48vs Predicted
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3University of Maryland-1.14+2.22vs Predicted
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4American University-0.06-0.35vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia0.06-1.57vs Predicted
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6William and Mary-0.06-2.42vs Predicted
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7Catholic University of America-1.56-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96Virginia Tech-0.360.1%1st Place
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2.48University of Virginia0.700.3%1st Place
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5.22University of Maryland-1.140.1%1st Place
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3.65American University-0.060.1%1st Place
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3.43University of Virginia0.060.2%1st Place
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3.58William and Mary-0.060.2%1st Place
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5.67Catholic University of America-1.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hale | 12.3% | 13.9% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 19.4% | 16.2% | 7.7% |
| Andrew Montague | 31.9% | 27.1% | 17.6% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Anthony Thonnard | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 15.6% | 25.8% | 30.2% |
| Karl Wagerson | 14.4% | 15.0% | 17.8% | 18.5% | 17.2% | 12.7% | 4.4% |
| Connor Lothrop | 16.1% | 18.9% | 19.0% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 4.1% |
| Sam Dutilly | 15.8% | 15.2% | 18.1% | 17.3% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 4.6% |
| Benedict Gorman | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 48.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.