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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.38+7.93vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+8.91vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.91vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.93+6.45vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.87+1.71vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22-0.55vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.71vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.79+3.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.40-0.46vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93+0.85vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.96vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.45-3.28vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.35-4.34vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.05-4.22vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.44vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-5.40vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.32-3.91vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.90-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.93Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.91George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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10.45Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.71Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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5.45Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.29St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.07Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.54U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.85Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.96University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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8.72Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.66SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.78University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.53Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.7% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Alex Adams | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 30.7% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.0% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 19.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.