← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+7.78vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.43vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+4.84vs Predicted
-
4Georgetown University3.22+1.38vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University1.90+5.57vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.93+4.62vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University1.93+3.56vs Predicted
-
8Yale University1.79+3.10vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.05+1.06vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.38-1.02vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University2.87-4.17vs Predicted
-
12Tulane University2.45-3.24vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University1.90-2.47vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-5.63vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-4.55vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College2.35-7.15vs Predicted
-
17University of Vermont1.32-3.87vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles1.06-4.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.78U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
-
6.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
7.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
-
5.38Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
-
10.57George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
-
10.62Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
-
10.56Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
-
11.1Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
-
10.06University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
-
8.98Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
-
6.83Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
-
8.76Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
-
10.53Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
-
8.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
10.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
-
8.85SUNY Maritime College2.350.0%1st Place
-
13.13University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
-
13.77University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 14.7% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% |
| Alex Adams | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 7.9% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Robby Meek | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 20.7% |
| Marianna Shand | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 27.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.