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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+6.88vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.87+4.81vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.79+8.42vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.27vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.40+2.56vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.45+1.35vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.22-2.65vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90+1.73vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.38-1.04vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.09vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.93-1.05vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.90-2.47vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.05-4.27vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-2.07vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles1.06-1.98vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-6.30vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.93-7.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.81Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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11.42Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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6.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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8.35Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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5.35Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.73George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.96Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.91SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.95Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.53Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.73University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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12.93University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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14.02University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.37Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Robby Meek | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.4% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 18.3% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 30.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.