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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.87+5.92vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.05+8.34vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.38+5.92vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+5.35vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.22-0.63vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.93+3.56vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.49vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.90+1.66vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.90+0.93vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.07vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.45-3.23vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.50vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-6.62vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles1.06-1.14vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.32-2.93vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.93-6.27vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.79-7.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.34University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.92Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.24St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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5.37Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.56Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.66George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.93Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.93SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.77Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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13.86University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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13.07University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.73Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.96Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Meek | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 12.5% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 29.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 20.6% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| Alex Adams | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.