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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.87+5.93vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.45+6.58vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+6.01vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+4.58vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+5.38vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.27vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22-1.59vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90+2.60vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.79+2.20vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.14vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.90-0.12vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.40-3.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-5.47vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.05-4.23vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-2.05vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.93-5.34vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.93-6.32vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles1.06-4.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.93Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.58Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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9.01SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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8.58Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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6.27St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.41Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.6George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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11.2Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.88Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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9.77University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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12.95University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.66Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.68Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.77University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Meek | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Kelly Holthus | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.8% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Alex Adams | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 6.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Marianna Shand | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 27.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.