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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.47vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.93+8.89vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+2.50vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.90+6.56vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.05+4.12vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.38+1.65vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63-0.40vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+1.54vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.87-3.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.40-2.26vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.79-0.45vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.93-2.58vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.45-5.90vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-2.07vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.90-5.18vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles1.06-2.98vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-9.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.89Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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5.5Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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10.56George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.72SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.12University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.65Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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6.98Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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11.55Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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10.42Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.1Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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12.93University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.82Fordham University1.900.0%1st Place
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14.02University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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8.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| Alex Adams | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 17.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 6.2% |
| Marianna Shand | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 14.2% | 31.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.