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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+7.04vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.51+6.50vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.61vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+1.51vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.74vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+2.83vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.87-0.16vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90+2.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+1.63vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93+0.97vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-0.12vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.05-1.36vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.45-4.67vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.32-1.20vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-6.33vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.35-7.00vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles1.06-2.86vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.79-6.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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8.5Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.51Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.83Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.84Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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10.7George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.97Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.88Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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10.64University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.33Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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12.8University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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9.0SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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14.14University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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11.16Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 14.6% | 18.7% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 32.4% |
| Alex Adams | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.