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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.38+8.02vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.58vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.22+2.69vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.72vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.87+1.87vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.06+8.01vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.51+1.29vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90+2.74vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.93+1.72vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.93+1.01vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.32+2.17vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.79-0.29vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.35vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95-3.70vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.40-6.28vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.05-5.65vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.45-8.32vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College2.35-9.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.02Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.69Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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7.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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6.87Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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14.01University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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8.29Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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10.74George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.72Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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11.01Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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13.17University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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11.71Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.35University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.68Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.75SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.1% | 13.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 29.3% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.7% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 21.9% |
| Alex Adams | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.3% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Honig | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.