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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.64vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+9.12vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+5.00vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.22+1.54vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.79+6.23vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.35+2.95vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.95+3.61vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.93+2.62vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.87-2.20vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.32+3.29vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.93-0.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.31vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.40-4.42vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.05-4.07vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.26vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.51-7.61vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.45-8.30vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.38-9.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.12George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.1%1st Place
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5.54Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.23Yale University1.790.0%1st Place
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8.95SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.950.0%1st Place
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10.62Cornell University1.930.0%1st Place
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6.8Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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13.29University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.91Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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14.31University of California at Los Angeles1.060.0%1st Place
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8.58U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Pennsylvania2.050.0%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.39Fordham University2.510.1%1st Place
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8.7Tulane University2.450.1%1st Place
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8.64Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 9.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Mariner Fagan | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 8.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% |
| Robby Meek | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 20.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% |
| Marianna Shand | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 33.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Honig | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Kelly Holthus | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.