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📊 Prediction Accuracy

56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
James Jagielski 13.7% 14.9% 12.3% 12.5% 9.4% 10.0% 7.8% 6.1% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cameron Frary 6.2% 8.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.3% 9.0% 8.3% 8.0% 8.9% 8.3% 7.6% 5.3% 3.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Ted Richardsson 6.4% 6.2% 7.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.3% 8.5% 8.9% 10.7% 9.2% 8.0% 5.5% 3.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Genevieve Lau 15.3% 15.3% 12.9% 12.0% 12.4% 9.0% 7.1% 6.3% 4.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sam Harris 10.5% 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 10.7% 9.2% 9.0% 7.9% 7.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Talia Trigg 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 7.5% 10.0% 9.3% 14.1% 17.8% 14.1% 3.7%
Rob Mailley 10.5% 9.7% 7.9% 10.1% 9.0% 9.8% 10.9% 7.9% 7.3% 6.6% 5.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Brendan OBrien 3.3% 3.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.7% 6.3% 8.3% 8.1% 8.9% 10.5% 13.4% 9.4% 7.6% 2.7% 0.5%
Sonja Krajewski 3.8% 4.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 6.4% 7.3% 8.8% 8.4% 9.2% 12.2% 8.3% 8.5% 6.1% 2.9% 0.2%
Andrew Powers 15.8% 12.8% 16.0% 12.3% 12.7% 9.2% 7.3% 5.2% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kathleen Hanson 2.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 3.0% 4.7% 4.9% 5.3% 5.2% 7.7% 8.1% 13.4% 15.2% 12.7% 8.3% 1.6%
Ethan Smits 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% 7.0% 7.1% 7.7% 11.5% 12.3% 17.7% 12.8% 2.2%
Andy Giaya 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 7.5% 6.8% 11.1% 13.2% 13.1% 11.6% 6.9% 1.3%
Benjamin Wilkinson 6.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.8% 8.7% 7.9% 8.1% 11.4% 8.8% 10.4% 7.0% 6.2% 5.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
Mitchel Soederberg 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 3.6% 5.4% 9.3% 13.5% 37.3% 19.0%
Benjamin Haddad 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% 3.2% 5.7% 13.3% 71.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.