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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Olin College of Engineering0.52+3.79vs Predicted
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2Bates College-0.19+4.88vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire0.35+2.30vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire-0.95+5.40vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University-0.37+2.51vs Predicted
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6McGill University0.70-1.55vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.17-1.12vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.26-1.03vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-0.78-0.33vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.70-5.59vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-0.79vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.54-0.97vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.36-2.59vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.67-2.74vs Predicted
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15Bates College-2.61-1.41vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-3.77-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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6.88Bates College-0.190.1%1st Place
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5.3University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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9.4University of New Hampshire-0.950.0%1st Place
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7.51Northeastern University-0.370.0%1st Place
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4.45McGill University0.700.2%1st Place
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5.88Dartmouth College0.170.1%1st Place
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6.97University of New Hampshire-0.260.1%1st Place
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8.67University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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4.41Connecticut College0.700.2%1st Place
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10.21University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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11.03University of New Hampshire-1.540.0%1st Place
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10.41University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
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11.26Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
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13.59Bates College-2.610.0%1st Place
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15.23University of New Hampshire-3.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jagielski | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Frary | 5.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 12.5% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Wilkinson | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Lau | 15.2% | 16.5% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rob Mailley | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted Richardsson | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Powers | 15.2% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 1.4% |
| Ethan Smits | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 17.9% | 11.7% | 2.3% |
| Kathleen Hanson | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 1.4% |
| Talia Trigg | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 3.0% |
| Mitchel Soederberg | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 36.0% | 19.9% |
| Benjamin Haddad | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 14.1% | 71.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.