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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of New Hampshire0.35+4.36vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College1.23+1.27vs Predicted
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3McGill University0.70+1.46vs Predicted
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4Bates College-0.19+3.16vs Predicted
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5University of New Hampshire-0.78+3.86vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.95+3.39vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.67+4.41vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.26-0.94vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University-0.37-1.48vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College0.17-3.99vs Predicted
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11Olin College of Engineering0.52-6.04vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-1.72vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.36-2.47vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.54-3.08vs Predicted
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15Bates College-2.61-1.42vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-3.77-0.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.36University of New Hampshire0.350.1%1st Place
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3.27Connecticut College1.230.3%1st Place
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4.46McGill University0.700.1%1st Place
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7.16Bates College-0.190.1%1st Place
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8.86University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.39University of New Hampshire-0.950.0%1st Place
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11.41Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
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7.06University of New Hampshire-0.260.1%1st Place
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7.52Northeastern University-0.370.1%1st Place
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6.01Dartmouth College0.170.1%1st Place
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4.96Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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10.28University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.53University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
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10.92University of New Hampshire-1.540.0%1st Place
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13.58Bates College-2.610.0%1st Place
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15.23University of New Hampshire-3.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Harris | 9.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 27.3% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genevieve Lau | 13.9% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Frary | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Brendan OBrien | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Talia Trigg | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 2.8% |
| Ted Richardsson | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Wilkinson | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Rob Mailley | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 13.4% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 1.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 1.0% |
| Kathleen Hanson | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 1.5% |
| Ethan Smits | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 2.7% |
| Mitchel Soederberg | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 37.0% | 19.3% |
| Benjamin Haddad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 6.4% | 12.7% | 71.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.