Race 1A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

71.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jonathan Weed 27.3% 22.7% 16.4% 13.5% 10.0% 5.7% 2.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Teddy Martin 26.2% 20.3% 19.1% 15.4% 10.1% 5.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Collinson 3.0% 4.1% 4.5% 6.3% 5.9% 9.3% 13.8% 16.9% 14.7% 11.9% 7.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Margo Cicero 11.9% 14.1% 16.4% 16.0% 15.3% 12.2% 7.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toby Sullivan 11.4% 15.8% 16.9% 14.4% 15.0% 12.7% 8.2% 3.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 5.3% 5.1% 5.6% 10.1% 11.9% 14.0% 15.7% 13.9% 9.8% 5.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bryan Lawrence 2.8% 2.9% 4.7% 4.4% 7.7% 10.0% 15.8% 14.2% 15.6% 11.8% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Seton Dill 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.0% 2.5% 3.4% 5.5% 7.5% 9.8% 15.3% 21.2% 18.7% 11.6%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 3.1% 3.6% 4.8% 7.8% 14.5% 16.3% 18.3% 13.9% 8.6% 2.3% 1.4%
Marlon Wool 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 2.1% 2.2% 3.5% 6.3% 11.7% 15.9% 23.2% 20.4% 10.8%
Isabella Hughes 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 10.1% 15.6% 24.6% 36.1%
Brian Zagalsky 0.9% 0.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.7% 4.1% 4.9% 8.7% 16.0% 17.2% 16.9% 12.8% 8.4% 3.1%
Aiden Zurcher 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 2.5% 2.6% 5.6% 10.6% 13.9% 24.0% 36.9%
Stefano Palamara 7.8% 10.8% 10.7% 12.1% 14.1% 15.2% 14.0% 8.9% 3.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.