Race 2A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jonathan Weed 26.8% 23.0% 18.2% 13.2% 9.5% 5.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 13.5% 16.9% 15.1% 16.6% 13.5% 13.1% 6.0% 3.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 5.8% 6.6% 7.8% 8.0% 11.3% 13.0% 16.3% 14.9% 8.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nicholas Lorenzen 0.9% 2.1% 1.3% 3.4% 3.3% 7.9% 9.0% 11.2% 17.8% 17.4% 13.1% 8.3% 3.0% 1.3%
Teddy Martin 21.2% 22.4% 19.6% 13.8% 11.4% 6.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 8.1% 6.9% 11.3% 13.3% 14.7% 15.0% 13.5% 8.5% 4.8% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marlon Wool 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 3.3% 2.7% 4.5% 8.4% 9.4% 16.4% 22.7% 17.8% 10.9%
Matthew Collinson 3.6% 3.2% 4.6% 5.7% 7.4% 8.2% 16.5% 14.6% 15.6% 10.7% 6.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Toby Sullivan 14.5% 12.8% 15.6% 16.4% 16.6% 10.3% 7.6% 4.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brian Zagalsky 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.8% 5.4% 11.6% 11.9% 18.0% 18.2% 13.5% 8.0% 2.7%
Isabella Hughes 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.2% 2.0% 3.2% 5.0% 9.8% 13.5% 26.5% 36.3%
Seton Dill 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 1.3% 1.5% 3.2% 5.0% 5.9% 12.8% 17.0% 22.1% 17.5% 11.6%
Aiden Zurcher 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 2.5% 3.4% 4.9% 9.5% 13.8% 25.3% 36.9%
Bryan Lawrence 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.8% 6.9% 11.4% 11.6% 15.8% 17.3% 11.9% 6.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.