Race 3A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jonathan Weed 26.0% 23.2% 16.8% 13.5% 10.0% 5.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 4.9% 6.1% 8.7% 9.9% 9.8% 12.6% 17.1% 11.4% 10.3% 5.0% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Teddy Martin 23.9% 22.9% 16.0% 14.8% 10.6% 6.8% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 12.7% 15.0% 14.0% 15.2% 14.1% 13.3% 7.9% 4.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Collinson 1.8% 2.9% 5.2% 4.7% 6.8% 8.9% 12.6% 15.5% 13.6% 12.8% 8.8% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Toby Sullivan 13.4% 12.3% 16.8% 15.7% 15.0% 10.7% 8.2% 4.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 9.0% 9.6% 10.9% 11.4% 15.7% 14.8% 11.6% 8.5% 6.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.6% 1.8% 2.9% 3.4% 4.8% 4.9% 6.6% 9.7% 14.0% 16.8% 14.0% 12.8% 5.3% 1.4%
Bryan Lawrence 2.8% 2.6% 3.4% 4.2% 4.6% 8.6% 11.9% 16.5% 14.3% 12.6% 12.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Charlie Bullock 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% 2.6% 1.6% 4.6% 6.7% 9.7% 11.3% 15.4% 19.1% 14.1% 8.0% 2.6%
Isabella Hughes 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 1.2% 2.5% 3.0% 6.9% 13.8% 26.1% 42.5%
Seton Dill 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 3.0% 5.3% 9.5% 12.9% 24.4% 25.2% 12.0%
Anish Jayewardene 2.1% 1.0% 2.7% 2.9% 4.0% 6.1% 7.1% 11.3% 13.8% 16.9% 14.8% 11.0% 5.3% 1.0%
Aiden Zurcher 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 2.8% 4.3% 6.8% 14.0% 27.0% 40.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.