Race 4A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Teddy Martin 23.3% 22.3% 18.3% 13.6% 9.9% 7.2% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toby Sullivan 15.2% 14.4% 16.5% 14.4% 15.2% 11.8% 6.1% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Weed 26.2% 20.8% 18.2% 15.2% 9.6% 6.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 6.5% 10.4% 10.7% 12.5% 13.4% 15.2% 14.1% 7.6% 5.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 3.5% 6.1% 6.9% 9.1% 11.3% 12.9% 14.7% 13.5% 11.6% 5.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.0% 1.5% 2.6% 2.2% 3.7% 4.9% 8.0% 11.0% 13.2% 16.3% 17.0% 11.3% 6.3% 1.0%
Margo Cicero 14.8% 14.1% 13.2% 17.8% 14.8% 11.1% 7.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Bryan Lawrence 2.6% 3.2% 5.3% 4.6% 5.1% 8.7% 12.8% 13.0% 13.2% 13.0% 9.9% 6.4% 2.1% 0.1%
Matthew Collinson 3.5% 2.4% 3.5% 4.1% 7.4% 8.6% 13.1% 15.7% 14.5% 12.7% 9.1% 3.5% 1.8% 0.1%
Seton Dill 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 3.6% 5.1% 9.0% 12.3% 24.2% 24.0% 14.4%
Anish Jayewardene 1.1% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 4.2% 5.7% 8.5% 10.7% 12.9% 16.8% 15.9% 12.3% 4.7% 1.0%
Charlie Bullock 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.8% 3.0% 4.8% 5.7% 10.8% 13.8% 14.7% 17.5% 13.5% 7.7% 2.2%
Aiden Zurcher 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.2% 2.9% 6.6% 14.0% 25.4% 42.5%
Isabella Hughes 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 3.6% 4.5% 7.1% 13.3% 27.8% 38.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.