Race 5A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Teddy Martin 25.4% 22.3% 17.8% 14.1% 9.4% 6.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toby Sullivan 14.4% 17.3% 16.4% 14.7% 16.8% 9.6% 5.9% 3.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 8.5% 8.3% 12.7% 12.6% 14.5% 13.8% 13.7% 9.3% 4.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Weed 25.6% 23.6% 17.2% 14.6% 9.0% 6.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 10.7% 13.5% 17.2% 16.9% 14.2% 13.4% 8.3% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 5.5% 4.6% 6.9% 9.4% 11.2% 15.2% 15.2% 13.3% 10.0% 5.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Dill 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 2.5% 4.1% 5.3% 8.5% 11.3% 15.6% 20.2% 17.5% 11.1%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.5% 1.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.8% 5.4% 9.6% 11.5% 16.2% 17.1% 12.8% 9.0% 4.2% 0.7%
Bryan Lawrence 2.7% 3.1% 2.9% 4.4% 6.8% 8.6% 13.1% 17.8% 16.4% 11.9% 7.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Matthew Collinson 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.7% 7.4% 10.2% 14.3% 16.9% 15.5% 11.7% 6.4% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Isabella Hughes 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 3.0% 6.2% 8.4% 14.2% 24.5% 37.9%
Brian Zagalsky 0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 2.5% 3.1% 3.8% 5.4% 10.0% 11.9% 19.4% 17.3% 12.9% 8.4% 2.5%
Marlon Wool 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2.5% 2.7% 4.1% 6.8% 10.0% 18.2% 20.4% 20.6% 10.6%
Aiden Zurcher 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 2.1% 3.4% 4.3% 10.4% 16.5% 22.5% 36.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.