Race 6A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Jonathan Weed 26.8% 24.0% 17.6% 12.3% 8.8% 6.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Teddy Martin 24.5% 22.5% 20.2% 14.8% 7.7% 6.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 13.4% 14.5% 16.7% 14.0% 14.8% 12.9% 7.8% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 4.2% 6.1% 7.4% 8.7% 13.5% 13.3% 16.6% 14.0% 8.3% 4.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 7.2% 8.2% 10.7% 15.6% 14.3% 14.8% 12.2% 9.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Toby Sullivan 13.2% 14.0% 15.8% 17.3% 13.9% 11.6% 6.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brian Zagalsky 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% 4.3% 5.4% 6.8% 8.6% 12.2% 17.0% 18.7% 12.5% 7.2% 1.9%
Matthew Collinson 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 5.6% 7.2% 11.2% 13.0% 14.6% 16.1% 11.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Bryan Lawrence 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 4.4% 7.9% 7.8% 14.1% 17.7% 15.8% 12.5% 7.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 3.6% 5.0% 10.1% 14.1% 16.1% 17.3% 12.1% 9.7% 2.9% 1.4%
Seton Dill 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 2.3% 2.0% 4.5% 7.4% 10.9% 16.5% 21.4% 20.2% 11.1%
Marlon Wool 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% 7.6% 11.0% 17.7% 20.9% 18.2% 12.9%
Isabella Hughes 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% 4.6% 5.6% 9.1% 14.5% 24.9% 35.9%
Aiden Zurcher 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 1.4% 1.6% 3.8% 6.4% 8.8% 14.3% 24.4% 36.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.