Race 10A

washington-fall

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

71.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Stefano Palamara 6.3% 11.5% 12.6% 12.7% 13.1% 14.6% 13.7% 8.6% 4.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jonathan Weed 27.3% 22.4% 17.5% 15.0% 8.6% 5.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brian Zagalsky 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 3.6% 8.0% 7.4% 13.5% 16.9% 18.4% 14.8% 6.4% 2.0%
Toby Sullivan 13.3% 14.2% 15.4% 15.9% 16.0% 11.2% 7.4% 3.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 11.1% 16.8% 13.1% 15.9% 16.4% 11.3% 8.0% 5.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jasper Waldman 5.2% 4.6% 7.1% 8.2% 11.6% 15.6% 14.4% 14.4% 9.9% 5.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bryan Lawrence 3.0% 2.9% 4.8% 4.3% 7.4% 10.5% 13.7% 14.4% 17.2% 11.0% 7.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.3% 2.1% 3.7% 2.4% 4.5% 6.1% 8.6% 11.9% 16.0% 16.5% 13.4% 9.0% 3.9% 0.6%
Matthew Collinson 3.7% 2.6% 4.0% 4.8% 6.0% 10.2% 14.6% 17.4% 16.8% 10.5% 6.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Seton Dill 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 4.9% 6.5% 12.9% 16.9% 19.7% 19.2% 11.9%
Marlon Wool 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.8% 2.6% 4.9% 6.8% 11.8% 15.5% 20.8% 20.9% 11.5%
Aiden Zurcher 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 6.7% 8.2% 15.7% 23.7% 38.1%
Isabella Hughes 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 2.5% 3.2% 5.6% 10.4% 14.3% 24.1% 35.6%
Teddy Martin 25.8% 19.7% 17.6% 16.6% 10.4% 6.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.