Race 11A

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Teddy Martin 25.5% 18.3% 18.9% 14.9% 11.0% 6.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margo Cicero 13.7% 13.8% 15.3% 15.4% 13.5% 12.5% 8.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Stefano Palamara 6.5% 9.7% 11.5% 11.7% 14.3% 15.5% 13.6% 8.9% 5.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bryan Lawrence 2.4% 2.3% 4.2% 3.9% 7.4% 9.9% 11.1% 14.6% 17.3% 14.1% 9.2% 3.1% 0.5%
Jonathan Weed 25.1% 25.3% 16.1% 14.9% 8.5% 6.5% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toby Sullivan 13.9% 14.8% 16.9% 16.3% 13.0% 11.0% 7.4% 4.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew Collinson 4.1% 3.6% 4.0% 5.4% 8.6% 7.5% 12.3% 14.9% 16.5% 12.2% 8.3% 2.3% 0.3%
Jasper Waldman 5.0% 6.9% 6.0% 9.1% 11.8% 14.6% 16.6% 11.8% 9.6% 5.9% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Nicholas Lorenzen 1.4% 2.0% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% 5.5% 6.4% 13.0% 13.3% 20.0% 19.3% 8.2% 1.6%
Anish Jayewardene 1.1% 2.1% 3.0% 3.2% 4.5% 5.2% 8.6% 12.2% 15.1% 17.5% 18.5% 6.7% 2.3%
Brian Zagalsky 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% 2.8% 4.4% 6.9% 9.4% 12.5% 17.6% 23.4% 14.2% 4.3%
Aiden Zurcher 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.1% 2.6% 5.5% 7.2% 32.2% 46.9%
Isabella Hughes 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 3.1% 4.1% 10.6% 32.9% 44.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.