Race 3B

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Valerio Palamara 23.4% 23.4% 22.5% 15.6% 9.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iain Shand 5.1% 7.3% 9.0% 14.8% 17.8% 15.9% 13.8% 9.5% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Nathan Jensen 39.3% 29.1% 16.3% 9.6% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Spencer Dominguez 17.0% 20.3% 23.8% 19.1% 10.7% 6.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Patrick Cashin 3.5% 2.6% 4.4% 7.7% 9.9% 12.4% 15.0% 16.6% 14.8% 9.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Patrick Tis 2.0% 4.0% 5.2% 9.2% 10.3% 14.9% 17.0% 13.9% 14.1% 7.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0%
Kate Zurinskas 5.3% 6.2% 9.4% 11.8% 16.6% 16.3% 13.8% 11.2% 6.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William Roberts 1.6% 3.0% 3.8% 4.6% 9.3% 11.0% 14.0% 16.2% 20.0% 11.1% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Ralph Molinari 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 6.1% 16.1% 25.6% 26.5% 12.3%
Bracklinn Williams 1.9% 2.9% 3.9% 4.9% 8.1% 10.9% 12.9% 17.3% 17.2% 12.5% 5.2% 2.0% 0.3%
Jonah Belback 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% 5.2% 9.4% 18.6% 63.2%
Emma Retzlaff 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 4.3% 5.8% 9.2% 21.1% 25.0% 20.4% 8.1%
Myles Wommack 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 2.1% 2.5% 3.4% 6.3% 13.2% 24.3% 30.4% 15.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.