Race 4B

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nathan Jensen 40.6% 27.4% 18.4% 7.9% 4.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Spencer Dominguez 17.7% 22.8% 22.6% 18.5% 10.0% 5.4% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valerio Palamara 23.2% 26.1% 20.5% 15.0% 10.1% 3.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William Roberts 1.5% 2.2% 3.4% 6.3% 8.4% 12.6% 12.9% 14.3% 18.0% 14.1% 4.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Iain Shand 5.6% 6.4% 12.4% 14.8% 16.1% 13.8% 14.2% 9.4% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Patrick Cashin 2.0% 2.6% 5.8% 7.8% 8.4% 11.7% 14.7% 19.1% 12.9% 11.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Jonah Belback 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 3.9% 9.7% 17.1% 63.4%
Patrick Tis 3.2% 3.8% 4.3% 7.7% 11.1% 15.2% 16.2% 15.3% 14.2% 5.7% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Ralph Molinari 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 7.3% 14.4% 25.0% 28.5% 12.3%
Myles Wommack 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 2.8% 3.1% 2.8% 5.4% 15.0% 23.4% 27.9% 16.9%
Bracklinn Williams 1.3% 1.9% 3.5% 6.7% 8.7% 10.9% 13.4% 17.4% 18.3% 11.4% 5.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Emma Retzlaff 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 3.8% 5.7% 8.6% 20.2% 25.0% 22.7% 7.0%
Kate Zurinskas 3.9% 5.9% 7.6% 11.4% 18.0% 18.0% 13.8% 10.8% 7.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.