Race 11B

washington-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nathan Jensen 39.6% 28.5% 17.8% 8.7% 3.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valerio Palamara 22.4% 24.0% 22.5% 13.5% 10.6% 5.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Spencer Dominguez 19.0% 19.8% 22.1% 18.3% 11.3% 6.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iain Shand 3.8% 7.4% 9.6% 14.4% 16.0% 16.3% 14.7% 8.7% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Patrick Cashin 2.0% 3.2% 5.0% 6.2% 9.0% 11.0% 15.6% 16.3% 19.7% 9.2% 2.7% 0.1%
William Roberts 1.8% 2.0% 3.5% 5.4% 7.6% 11.1% 11.3% 17.0% 23.3% 13.5% 3.1% 0.4%
Grafton Howard 2.5% 4.7% 4.4% 8.8% 9.7% 14.5% 15.8% 17.0% 13.6% 7.2% 1.8% 0.0%
Kate Zurinskas 4.6% 6.9% 8.2% 12.5% 15.2% 13.1% 15.8% 13.3% 8.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Advik Eswaran 3.2% 2.8% 5.8% 10.3% 13.8% 15.8% 16.7% 15.1% 11.1% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Ralph Molinari 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 3.7% 6.7% 24.5% 42.3% 14.0%
Emma Retzlaff 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% 6.4% 8.7% 31.5% 33.3% 11.2%
Jonah Belback 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 6.0% 14.9% 74.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.