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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+4.32vs Predicted
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2Washington College0.51+9.58vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.65+4.24vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.26+4.79vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University0.95+4.82vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.03+0.09vs Predicted
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7Florida State University0.97+2.93vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.44-0.03vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.84-2.24vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-2.52vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.28-2.08vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.01-6.01vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-4.17vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin0.86-3.48vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.08-1.93vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.49vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.37-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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11.58Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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7.24Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.79George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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9.82Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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6.09Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.93Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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7.97Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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7.48Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.92Old Dominion University1.280.1%1st Place
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5.99Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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8.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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10.52University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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13.07University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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12.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.19Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Bashaw | 14.9% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% |
| Emily Allen | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katie Nelson | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.4% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 5.8% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 26.8% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 18.6% |
| Laura Smith | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 17.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.