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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+7.48vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.01+3.93vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15+2.52vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University0.95+6.03vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.65+2.14vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.37+6.32vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island1.84-0.41vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.44-0.08vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.60vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-4.16vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.86-0.56vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.26-3.18vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.57-5.25vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.28-5.13vs Predicted
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15Florida State University0.97-5.07vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.08-2.87vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.51-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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5.93Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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10.03Roger Williams University0.950.0%1st Place
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7.14Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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12.32Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.59University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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7.92Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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12.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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5.84Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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10.44University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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8.82George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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8.87Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.93Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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13.13University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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11.7Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Madison Bashaw | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
| Emily Allen | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 17.6% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 19.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 5.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Katie Nelson | 3.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 25.4% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.