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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.01+4.79vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.44+5.99vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+5.71vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.03+2.00vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.84+1.41vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.65+1.44vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.15-1.55vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University0.95+1.82vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57-1.22vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.08+3.08vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.26-2.02vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-3.29vs Predicted
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13Florida State University0.97-2.96vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.44vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.51-3.39vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.37-3.78vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.86-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.99Boston University1.440.1%1st Place
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8.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.0Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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6.41University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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7.44Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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5.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.150.1%1st Place
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9.82Roger Williams University0.950.1%1st Place
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7.78Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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13.08University of Vermont0.080.0%1st Place
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8.98George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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8.71Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.04Florida State University0.970.0%1st Place
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12.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.61Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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12.22Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine McNamara | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 11.6% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Emily Allen | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Madison Bashaw | 12.1% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caylin Schnoor | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 24.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Katie Nelson | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 19.9% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 12.9% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 16.4% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.