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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.50+4.86vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.63+0.96vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.93vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.52+2.03vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.81+3.19vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.08+1.59vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+0.86vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.57+1.01vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.43+0.88vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.79-1.67vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.03vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.14-1.35vs Predicted
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13Fordham University0.99-5.17vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.24vs Predicted
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15Florida State University-0.03-3.76vs Predicted
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16Boston University-1.11-1.87vs Predicted
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17Washington College-3.47-0.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86Roger Williams University1.500.1%1st Place
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2.96Brown University2.630.3%1st Place
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6.93George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.03Northeastern University1.520.1%1st Place
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8.19Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.59Jacksonville University1.080.1%1st Place
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7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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9.88University of Wisconsin0.430.0%1st Place
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8.33Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.1%1st Place
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10.65University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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7.83Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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11.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.24Florida State University-0.030.0%1st Place
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14.13Boston University-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.77Washington College-3.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavia Smith | 10.5% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Hamilton | 28.7% | 23.2% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.8% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Agija Elerte | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Caitlin Derby | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Tegeder | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Brook Wood | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 0.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 16.0% | 0.7% |
| Lauren Connell | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 10.8% | 0.7% |
| Danielle Bogacheva | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 14.6% | 44.4% | 7.5% |
| Nora Beebe | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 5.8% | 90.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.