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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+6.70vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.54+5.12vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.48vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.43+3.34vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.90vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.10+2.78vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.99+2.26vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+2.52vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.24vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.81+0.36vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.55vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.69-1.02vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.50-1.73vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.30-2.11vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.22-6.77vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.53-4.63vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.47-9.65vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.62-7.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.7Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.12Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.48University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.34Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.9University of Pennsylvania2.830.0%1st Place
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8.78College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.26Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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9.24U. S. Naval Academy2.990.0%1st Place
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10.36Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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10.98Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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11.27Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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11.89Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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8.23Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.37Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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10.73Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% |
| Nathan Smith | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% |
| Bridget Green | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 10.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 15.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 6.5% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 11.2% |
| Robert Bragg | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.