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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.47+6.51vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.43+5.54vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.30+9.52vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.62+6.76vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.42+2.39vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.23+2.22vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.61vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.54-1.10vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-0.78vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.53+1.57vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.99-1.59vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.34vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.81-3.05vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.10-5.51vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.83-5.04vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.69-5.41vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.50-5.41vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.99-8.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.51Dartmouth College3.470.1%1st Place
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7.54Yale University3.430.1%1st Place
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12.52Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.76Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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7.39Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.61Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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6.9Harvard University3.540.1%1st Place
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8.22Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.57Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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9.41Stanford University2.990.1%1st Place
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10.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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9.95Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.49College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.96University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.59Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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11.59Tulane University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Bragg | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 17.9% |
| Trevor Davis | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 4.4% |
| Bridget Green | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Thad Lettsome | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 13.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.